Morning Market Brief – 2026-08-13

Good morning! After yesterday's tense anticipation of key US data, the markets have finally received an answer. Consumer inflation across the ocean continues its slow cooling, directly impacting expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) autumn decisions. At the same time, we see a resurgence in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, driven by strong performance from infrastructure companies. In the background, however, geopolitical tension continues to simmer, pushing gold prices to historical highs.

Geopolitical Environment

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains a key driver of volatility in commodity markets. Prolonged disruptions in maritime transport and a geopolitical risk premium are keeping Brent crude oil prices elevated, hovering close to $89 per barrel.

However, it is worth noting an interesting divergence in the oil market. On the one hand, fear regarding supply is driving up prices; on the other, major agencies are revising their commodity demand forecasts downwards. OPEC's latest report lowers its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to around 580,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, independent analyses of IEA (International Energy Agency) forecasts indicate that global demand could contract this year by about 1 million barrels per day, a result of high fuel prices impacting consumers. (Sources: AKM; Inkl; EnergyNewsBeat; MacroAgentDesk; Reuters).

Today's Highlights

• US inflation slows as expected, supporting Fed caution. Yesterday's data for July 2026 showed that headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year (down from 3.5% in June), matching market consensus exactly. Even more critical is the core CPI data (excluding volatile food and energy prices), which fell to around 2.5% YoY – its lowest level since 2021. For markets, this means that following a series of weaker labor market data points and the current CPI reading, investors now assign an over 50% probability to keeping interest rates unchanged in September, rather than hiking them. (Sources: PipTheory; CryptoSlate; MEXC Crypto Pulse; TradingKey; Newsquawk).
• Today's suite of US data will complete the picture. We expect today's release of PPI producer inflation (the producer price index for goods leaving factories, often a leading indicator for CPI) for July, along with weekly initial jobless claims. Combined with today's scheduled auction of 30-year US Treasury bonds, this will be a critical package of information for pricing the Fed's rate path and the yield curve. (Sources: Trading Economics; FirstPrint; Substack; MarketsDay; Newsquawk).
• AI infrastructure drives tech bulls once again. Yesterday, we mentioned high expectations for Super Micro Computer. The company delivered on the optimism, projecting next-quarter revenue at an impressive $14.5–15.5 billion, significantly above analyst consensus. Additionally, CoreWeave (an AI-focused cloud provider) reported a massive order backlog of $104 billion, triggering a double-digit rise in its stock price. This confirms to the market that the wave of investment in server hardware and chips remains in full swing, supporting broader demand for equities across the sector. (Sources: Stock Market Watch; Business Insider).
• Gold shines brightest, testing $4,400 per ounce. Weaker US labor market data, lower expectations for Fed rate hikes (which lowers US bond yields), and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have created an ideal environment for precious metals. In early August, gold traded near record levels, briefly crossing the $4,400 mark. Furthermore, physical demand remains very strong – the People's Bank of China (PBoC) increased its reserves by about 20 tons in July, continuing a buying streak of over 20 months. (Sources: Yahoo Finance; TradingKey; Bitrue; MiningWeekly; Caixin Global; China Daily; InvestorsKing).
• Massive trade surplus and export boom in China. Amid weak domestic demand (as evidenced by yesterday's sluggish Chinese CPI inflation), the Middle Kingdom is firing up its export engine. In July, exports grew by about 23.9% YoY (in USD terms), while imports rose by approximately 27.5% YoY (slightly below expectations). This translated into a massive trade surplus of $112.5 billion. The data shows that Chinese factories are running at full speed thanks to strong external demand, including for technology. (Sources: Reuters; CNBC; Trading Economics; Polymerupdate; IndexBox).

Market Background

• Massive buyback and optimism surrounding Vestas. In the green energy sector, Vestas Wind Systems delivered a major surprise. In its Q2 report, the company raised its full-year EBIT margin forecast to 7–9% from the previous 6–8%, recording a significant profitability increase compared to last year. Additionally, a share buyback program worth approximately EUR 400 million was announced, sending the stock price surging by around 20% – its largest single-day gain in several years. (Sources: Financial Post; Renewable Energy News; Vestas press release).
• Weakening consumer in Japan ahead of key BoJ releases. Official data showed that Japanese household spending fell by about 3.3% YoY in June, deepening a trend of declines in recent months. Consumer weakness presents a tough challenge for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as it attempts to normalize monetary policy. Market focus on the yen (currently around the 159 per dollar mark) and Japanese interest rates remains high, especially ahead of the release of the "Summary of Opinions" from the recent BoJ meeting. (Sources: Xinhua; Japan Times; Investing.com; Newsquawk).
• Asian indices catch a breather after correction. Following earlier sharp declines triggered by concerns over the US economy, markets in Asia (including South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei) recorded multi-percent rebounds in the first half of August. Gains were mainly driven by semiconductor companies (such as Samsung and SK Hynix), while high volatility periodically triggered circuit breakers to halt programmatic trading on the Korean exchange. (Sources: TradingKey; Yonhap; Vietnam.vn; Modern Diplomacy).
• Adyen shows strong growth prospects. European digital payments giant Adyen reported in its preliminary H1 2026 outlook that it aims to maintain high net revenue growth of over 20% at constant currency rates. The results indicate double-digit growth in revenues and payment volumes, largely reassuring investors. (Sources: Investing.com; Finimize; TradersUnion).

Worth Watching

Today and in the coming days, market attention will shift from inflation to hard economic data:

• 13.08 (Today) 08:00 – UK: Preliminary Q2 GDP. A reading that will impact the pound and Bank of England policy.
• 13.08 (Today) 14:30 – US: PPI Inflation and Initial Jobless Claims. As mentioned above, this is the main focal point of today's session.
• 14.08 (Friday) 11:00 – Eurozone: GDP (second estimate for Q2). Verification of the recovery pace in the Old Continent; key for upcoming ECB moves.
• 14.08 (Friday) 14:30 – US: Retail Sales. A direct indicator of the US consumer's health. Strong data will ease recession fears, while weak data could reignite them.
• 14.08 (Friday) 16:00 – US: Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Report. An important survey of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
• 17.08 (Monday) – Overnight & Morning (Asia): We will see Japan's preliminary Q2 GDP (impacting the yen), as well as monthly industrial production and retail sales data from China (crucial for evaluating the health of its economy and global commodity demand).