Morning Market Brief – 2026-08-12

Good morning! After a period of clear anticipation, financial markets have finally reached the most important milestone of this week. Today, all investors' attention is focused on US inflation data, which could decide the Federal Reserve's (Fed) moves in September. At the same time, geopolitical risk still looms on the horizon—the tense situation in the Middle East continues to push up oil prices, reminding us that the global fight against price pressures still has many variables.

Geopolitical Environment

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains the main risk factor for commodity markets. Commercial ship traffic along this strategic route has fallen drastically and currently accounts for only a fraction of the pre-war norm (some data points to just 33 transits over four days). Iranian officials signal that the strait will be fully reopened only when Washington meets their conditions, which include lifting the naval blockade, easing sanctions, and paying compensation.

Markets are extremely sensitive to these reports. Renewed fears of a prolonged paralysis of the route triggered a sharp spike in crude oil prices—in recent sessions, a barrel of Brent rose to around $87–88. Rising oil prices automatically translate to financial markets: raising concerns about a resurgence of inflation, exerting downward pressure on stock indexes, boosting bond yields, and strengthening the US dollar. (Sources: Reuters; CNBC; PortWatch; gCaptain; Babypips).

Key Today

• Today we will learn the most important macroeconomic data of the week—US CPI inflation. The report for July will be published at 14:30 Polish time. Market consensus assumes that headline inflation (CPI) will rise by 0.1% month-on-month (which would bring it to 3.4% year-on-year), while core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy prices) will rise by 0.2% MoM (2.5% YoY). These numbers will be crucial in assessing whether the Federal Reserve decides to cut or maintain interest rates at its September meeting. (Sources: FinancialJuice; PipTheory; IndexBox; Trading Economics; MarketsToday).
• Intel significantly expands its public offering to $20 billion. The tech giant announced an increase in the value of its planned common stock offering from the initially targeted $15 billion. The company will sell over 210.5 million shares at a price of $95 per share, expected to generate estimated net proceeds of approximately $19.7 billion (before underwriters potentially exercise their 30-day option to purchase an additional 31.58 million shares). The closing of the transaction is scheduled for today, August 12. The market is closely watching this move, evaluating the company's capital needs in the context of its ambitious restructuring plans. (Sources: Intel; Investing.com; Reuters; PacketNebula; Fidelity).

Market Background

• Cooling in the US housing market. Existing home sales in the US fell by 1.7% MoM in July to an annualized rate of 4.06 million units, a result slightly above expectations. At the same time, the median home price increased by about 2% YoY, reaching $434,100. Interest rates are not helping buyers—the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reached 6.69% in August, the highest level this year. (Sources: Associated Press; Haver Analytics; Freddie Mac).
• Chances of a rate hike in Japan rise, while the yen prepares to test 160. The USD/JPY exchange rate once again approached the psychological level of 160, trading around 159. At the same time, 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields rose to around 2.7–2.8%. The market currently assigns a noticeably higher probability (around 50–60%) of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) at its September meeting, reflecting the country's gradual exit from ultra-low interest rate policy. (Sources: CNBC; TradingEconomics; Morningstar DBRS; Straits Times).
• Chinese inflation at six-month lows. China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed in July to just 0.5% YoY (down from 1.0% in June), coming in below forecasts (0.8%) and marking the lowest level since January. On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.1%. This slowdown is driven mainly by falling food prices (a 1.5% YoY decline) and weak core inflation (0.9% YoY), raising renewed questions about the health of domestic Chinese demand. (Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China; Reuters; TradingEconomics).
• German inflation driven by energy. According to final data, annual CPI inflation in Germany for July was confirmed at 2.8% YoY (up from 2.3% in June), with a monthly increase of 0.8%. The main factor driving this jump was higher energy prices, fitting into the broader global trend of rising commodity prices. (Sources: CMC Markets; Newsquawk; Trading Economics).
• High expectations surrounding Super Micro Computer (SMCI). Ahead of its financial results publication, the company's shares rose by several percent, driven by management raising its preliminary gross margin guidance to the 15–17% range. The market expects revenue for the past quarter to reach around $11.5–11.6 billion, with investor attention focused on confirming a record order backlog. (Sources: Yahoo Finance; Investing.com; MarketBeat).

Worth Watching

Today and in the coming days, the macroeconomic calendar is packed with key releases:

• 12.08 (Today) 14:30 – US: CPI Inflation for July. An absolutely critical reading for the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rates and the valuation of the US dollar.
• This week – Global central banks: The calendar features the release of the "Summary of Opinions" from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) July meeting and the interest rate decision by Norway's Norges Bank (scheduled for Thursday), which could impact the Norwegian krone (NOK) and local debt markets.
• 13.08 (Thursday) 08:00 – UK: Preliminary Q2 GDP. Will indicate the growth rate of the British economy and influence expectations regarding the Bank of England's future policy.
• 13.08 (Thursday) 14:30 – US: PPI Inflation and Initial Jobless Claims. A measure of wholesale inflation pressure signaling consumer price trends ahead, combined with the current picture of the US labor market.
• 14.08 (Friday) 11:00 – Eurozone: GDP (second estimate for Q2). Will allow for a more precise assessment of economic growth dynamics in Europe.
• 14.08 (Friday) 14:30 – US: Retail Sales for July. An important indicator of consumer demand, which serves as the main engine of the US economy.
• 14.08 (Friday) 16:00 – US: Preliminary University of Michigan Report. An indicator of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, closely monitored by the Fed.