Morning Market Brief – 2026-09-23

Financial markets are catching a clear breath, with investor attention focused on all-time highs in the U.S. tech sector and calming conditions in the debt market. We are currently witnessing global central banks, led by the U.S. Fed (Federal Reserve) and the Japanese BoJ (Bank of Japan), executing their signaled pivot toward monetary policy tightening. At the same time, equity markets—bolstered by a temporary dip in oil prices and hopes for easing tensions between Washington and Beijing—are choosing to continue their upward momentum. Today's session will be dominated by a deluge of preliminary PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data, which will reveal how the real economy is weathering this new environment of higher interest rates.

Geopolitical Environment

• Market commentary is increasingly buzzing about the U.S.–China summit planned for late September, featuring President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping. Although the exact date and agenda are currently based on sources close to the negotiations, the market views this meeting as a key event that could deliver a tariff truce. These hopes are providing strong support for Asian equity markets. (Sources: MarketPulse; ThinkChina; Chatham House; Rio Times; HDFC Sky).
• In the Middle East, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains highly tense. Shipping data indicates extreme transit disruptions—by mid-month, an average of only four cargo vessels per day were crossing the strait, compared to the usual dozen or more. On the other hand, Iranian officials ahead of the UN General Assembly signaled a willingness to consider reopening the route, though conditioning it on a reduction of the U.S. military presence and sanctions relief. Oil markets are reacting to this glimmer of diplomatic hope with high sensitivity. (Sources: Reuters; Asharq Al-Awsat; Caliber.Az; Straits Daily Brief).

Today's Highlights

• Tech euphoria on Wall Street and a historic milestone for AMD. On Monday, the U.S. Nasdaq Composite surged by approximately 2.3%, reaching a record closing high (27,122.09 pts), while the broad S&P 500 gained around 1.5%. However, the true star of the rally was Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), whose shares jumped 9–10%. As a result, the semiconductor maker's market capitalization crossed the magical $1 trillion threshold for the first time in history. Speculation is also circulating regarding Apple's potential march toward a $5 trillion valuation, though for now this remains purely a psychological target in analysts' discussions rather than a confirmed fact. (Sources: CNBC; Reuters; Investopedia; Sedaily).
• The global monetary policy pivot becomes reality, but the debt market breathes a sigh of relief. As a reminder, in mid-September, the Fed raised the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points (to 3.75–4.00%), and the Bank of Japan took a similar step, hiking its rate to around 1.25% (the highest since the mid-1990s, with the decision taking effect September 24). Despite such a hawkish backdrop, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields retreated from last week's highs above 5% back below that psychological threshold. This pullback provided investors with a massive dose of relief and directly fueled the aforementioned equity gains. (Sources: Reuters; CNBC).
• Surge in UK public sector borrowing. August data showed that UK public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) reached £18.3 billion, marking a 19% (£2.9 billion) increase year-on-year—the second-highest August figure on record. In the first five months of the fiscal year, London has already borrowed £77.3 billion, outpacing official forecasts from the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) by as much as £8.1 billion. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), public sector net financial liabilities (excluding banks) now stand at 82.3% of UK GDP, pointing to shrinking fiscal room for maneuver for the government. (Sources: ONS; TradingEconomics; Kael Tripton blog).

Market Backdrop

• Sharp awakening in the crypto market. After months of consolidation, Bitcoin (BTC) broke out toward the $80,000–$85,000 range. This rally, supported by broad risk-on sentiment (risk appetite), was dramatically accelerated by a short squeeze (forced liquidation of short positions)—wiping out several hundred million dollars' worth of bearish bets in a short span. Leading altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are also posting strong gains ranging from several to over a dozen percent. (Sources: Interactive Brokers; Zacks; Decrypt; Pluang).
• Oil stabilizes near the $100 mark. At the start of the week, Brent crude temporarily dipped below the $100 per barrel mark (down about 3–4% from the previous session), before stabilizing just above that threshold. This decline brought relief to European equity benchmarks (such as the Stoxx 600), which opened higher after three weeks of losses, lifting sentiment across the Old Continent ahead of today's macro releases. (Sources: Investing.com; WorldOil; TT News; Global Banking & Finance Review; CNBC).
• Consistently stronger yuan. China's central bank (PBOC) has recently been setting the yuan's reference rate against the dollar noticeably stronger, around 6.75—its strongest level since early 2023. This ongoing series of fixings aligns with market expectations of a thaw in trade relations with the U.S. (Sources: Rio Times; HDFC Sky).

What to Watch

Today represents an absolute test for the real economy—we will see preliminary (flash) September PMI readings from the world's major economies.

• 23.09 (09:15) – France: Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs. The market expects services to remain in contraction territory (below 50 points).
• 23.09 (09:30) – Germany: Flash PMIs. Consensus expects modest expansion, with manufacturing performing slightly better than services. A key barometer for the euro.
• 23.09 (10:00) – Eurozone: Flash Composite PMI. Important for the European Central Bank in assessing the pace of economic growth.
• 23.09 (10:30) – United Kingdom: Flash PMIs. Crucial for shaping expectations regarding the Bank of England's next moves, particularly in light of rising public debt.
• 23.09 (15:45) – USA: Flash PMIs (S&P Global). Will provide a snapshot of the health of the U.S. private sector and could impact afternoon dollar trading and bond yields.
• 24.09 (09:30) – Switzerland: Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision. A high-impact event for the Swiss franc (CHF).
• 24.09 (14:30) – USA: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, reflecting the current strength of the U.S. labor market.